Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Bobby Cox 158 game ejections record

Bobby Cox 158 game ejections record, Bobby Cox, who is retiring as Atlanta Braves manager after this season, has an excellent career record. Over 25 seasons with the Braves and four seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays, his teams have won 55.6% of their games, 15 division titles, five pennants and one world championship.

Cox also holds the career record for ejections from games, with 156 — a position he’s held since 2007, when every one of his ejections became a media event. This week Sports Illustrated ran an enlightening look at Cox’s ejections, recounting the stories behind a few of them and weighing the claim made by Cox’s longtime star, Chipper Jones, that the ejections boost the Braves.

Cox deserves kudos for many things, including all those winning seasons and his apparently positive effect on pitchers. But his ejections don’t belong in the same category, despite SI’s findings that suggest Cox’s teams thrive after he’s tossed out of the game.

SI points out that Cox’s teams outscore opponents by an average one-third of a run per game in the period after he has been ejected, and that they win more than 60% of games after his ejections. Those would represent impressive boosts for average teams.

But Cox has managed above-average teams that outscored opponents and won more than they lost in games when Cox wasn’t tossed or fresh off an ejection. I compiled his teams’ year-by-year records (using Baseball Reference), then weighted them by the number of times Cox was ejected in each season. Then I assumed that his average ejection came between the fifth and sixth innings, because SI said the fifth and sixth innings are the most common times for him to be ejected.

Based on those calculations, one would expect the Braves to win a post-ejection game 55.5% of the time, and to outscore opponents in ejection games after Cox was ejected by a quarter of a run. Cox’s teams have modestly exceeded those marks, by about 15 runs in games in which he was ejected and by seven wins in follow-up games. Those may be statistical noise, but even if they’re real effects, they’re mere statistical footnotes to Cox’s more tangible accomplishments.

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